As a theoretical physicist (Ph.D.), I have been modeling COVID-19 (and some Monkeypox...) for the past two years. All my predictions are presented on my Twitter account @hillaleon.
Does the indirect protection of the vaccine biases vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimations?
SARS-CoV-2 vaccines provide high protection against infection to the vaccinated individual and indirect protection to its surroundings by blocking further transmission. Divergent results have been reported on the effectiveness of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Here, we argue that this divergence is because the analyses did not consider indirect protection. Using a novel heterogeneous infection model (python) and real-world data, we demonstrate that heterogeneous vaccination rates among families and communities, both spatially and temporally, and the study design that is used may significantly skew the VE estimations